New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor
Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history
On Tuesday, primary voters will go the polls in New Jersey to decide the Democratic and Republican nominees for governor. On the GOP side, former state Assembleyman Jack Ciattarelli looks like a clear favorite to win. Ciattarelli came close to winning in the 2021 gubernatorial race, and he received President Donald Trump’s endorsement back then and now.
However, Democrats have arguably the most crowded primary in the state’s history, at least when it comes to the number of candidates who could garner a meaningful share of the vote. Two members of Congress are in the race (Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer), as are two mayors (Newark’s Ras Baraka and Jersey City’s Steven Fulop), and two others with their own influential ties (former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and Sean Spiller, president of the state’s biggest teacher’ union). All six contenders have serious financial backing — either through their campaigns or outside groups — which has given them the wherewithal to build a campaign apparatus and make advertising appeals to voters in the state’s two very expensive media markets (New York and Philadelphia).
Now, Sherrill has led every publicly-released survey, so she’s undoubtedly the favorite. An average of the four most recent surveys, all released in May, gives her with a 12-point lead over Baraka, 28%-16%, with Fulop in third with 15%.
Yet the most recent polls of this contest are now about a month old, so the state of the race may have shifted in important ways. The final month in a primary campaign can be a volatile period in which it’s not at all rare for a candidate to surge because of shifts in voters’ attitudes as they become more familiar with their options.
That brings us to the potential for an unusually large number of candidates to win a substantial share of the vote on Tuesday. There’s good reason to think that all six contenders could garner at least 10%, considering that most polls have a large block of undecided voters who will end up in one camp (or won’t vote). Such a result would be a first in New Jersey’s history: The most candidates to clear 10% in a gubernatorial primary is five, which happened in both the 1977 and 1981 Democratic primaries.1
Now, this might seem like just a fun statistic, but it may also say something about the Garden State’s changing political environment. Traditionally, local party endorsements have played an especially influential role in New Jersey party primaries. A candidate endorsed by a county party committee used to receive the “county line” on the primary ballot, an advantageous placement that boosted a candidate’s chances of winning. However, a federal court struck down the system in March 2024, and earlier this year, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy signed a new state ballot law that abolished the county line.
This change has undoubtedly reduced the sway of local party leaders, making it less vital for candidates to secure their support when running for office. That may have encouraged more notable candidates to seek the governorship instead of staying out of the race because there is less of a need to defer to the preferences of party bigwigs. That’s not to say that such local endorsements are worthless — a candidate can always benefit from having influential figures in their corner — but that they no longer function as a direct means of winning votes via the county line.
Granted, the crowded field also reflects the state’s large bench of Democratic officeholders, who may want to seek higher office but have few opportunities. New Jersey’s only statewide-elected office in state government is governor (with a jointly-elected lieutenant governor on the same ticket). Outside of that, the state has two U.S. Senate seats, but those have six-year terms and no term limits. Because Murphy is term-limited, this is a big chance for Democratic aspirants to win a rare statewide opening. While New Jersey had an eye-opening swing to the right in the 2024 presidential election, it’s still a blue-leaning state that is more likely to elect a Democrat, especially with a somewhat unpopular Republican president in office.
We’ll see how things play out on Tuesday. But the Democratic primary for governor could be indicative of a more highly-contested era of New Jersey politics.
New Jersey’s 1981 Democratic primary for governor stands out as an interesting parallel to this 2025 edition. That race also featured two members of Congress (Reps. Jim Florio and Robert Roe), the mayors of Newark and Jersey City (Kenneth Gibson and Thomas Smith, respectively), and a sitting state Senate president (Joseph Merlino). Florio won the highly-fragmented primary with 26%, but he went on to lose in a squeaker that November to Republican Tom Kean Sr., 49.5%-49.4%. Republicans will hope for a similar outcome this time around.